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In my last post I wrote about some decent options for fantasy football. This time around I'll be listing off some guys that I would not want, or at least hesitate to, draft. Some of the guys I mention below are players that I expect will have a significant decline in their fantasy value while other guys I expect to fall just a hair shy of expectations. I'm not going to list obvious guys like Chris "CJNoK" Johnson or Shaun Hill - nobody wants them.

Lower Your Expectations (Guys I would draft but lower than in previous years/lower than when the experts say to draft them):

Calvin Johnson - WR, Lions: Let's start off with the biggest name that will appear on this list. While he is the greatest wide receiver on the planet and will go down as one of the all time greats at his position, there is reason to believe that he will fall just short of the monster numbers that we're use to seeing from him. Detroit added a 2nd WR (Golden Tate), and they've been really working on screen plays to Reggie Bush and the rest of the running backs. While he'll finish the season as one of the top fantasy receivers (especially with Josh Gordon done for the year), don't expect 100+ yards and a touchdown or 2 every week.

Kyle Rudolph - TE, Vikings: Everyone is predicting that he's going to have a huge year. Why? Norv Turner, that's why. Just look what he did with Antonio Gates! While TE's have thrived in Turner's offensive schemes, there's a lot else going on with this offense. The Vikings have 3 pretty decent WR's (Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Jerome Simpson) and Adrian Peterson is going to be more involved in the passing game. Norv, in my opinion, actually helps out his running backs more. Just look what he did with Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, and Ladainian Tomlinson. Plus his QB is Matt Cassell. I'll feel better about him once Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter.

Cam Newton - QB, Panthers: Who is he going to throw to? A rookie, an aging TE, and a bunch of nobodies. His running ability adds to his value but he gets hurt a lot. He needed surgery on his ankles this offseason and now he has a bruised/broken rib. He'll be starting week 1, but how long can he last? He'd be a good mid-round selection if you put off drafting your starting QB for some reason, or a solid back-up for bye weeks and match-up purposes. However, I don't want him leading my fantasy football team.

Andy Dalton - QB, Bengals: He's put up pretty decent numbers throwing to AJ Green the past couple of years, but I don't really trust him this year. Yeah the Bengals just gave him a huge vote of confidence signing him to a big deal. But let's look at another AFC North QB who recently cashed in and then was horrible - Joe Flacco. Dalton probably won't be as wildly inconsistent as Flacco was last year, but I'm not drafting a mid-tier QB who recently signed an elite QB deal to lead my team. Though he's another good back-up option.

Arian Foster - RB, Texans: He's coming off a lost season, is in a new offensive scheme that's not as RB friendly, and his QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He could surprise, but in my eyes he's not a first round fantasy pick any more. Maybe not even a second rounder.

Fools Gold (Avoid these guys, they will disappoint!):

Tom Brady - QB & Rob Gronkowski - TE, Patriots: These two are tied together because without Gronk, Brady has no one, NO ONE, to throw to. Gronk is one step away from another season ending injury. Counting on him to stay healthy is like counting on getting struck by lighting, winning the lottery, and surviving the Apocalypse all in one night. Brady, as I mentioned, has no one else to throw to and he just lost his best offensive lineman for future players. Brady's future is now and Belichick continues to waste it. Sorry, Bill and fantasy owners, but 2007 was a long time ago.

Eli Manning - QB, Giants: I've never liked Manning. Out of the 3 top QBs in the 2004 draft, he should have been the last one picked. He was lucky in both Super Bowl runs (aided by great defense - DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!) and is struggling to learn a new offense. All he's ever had is his last name, and he's certainly never come close to being Peyton Lite. Hell, he's never come close to being Cooper Lite.

Maurice Jones Drew - RB, Raiders: One of the best backs in the league finally got out of Jacksonville and then promptly landed with the Raiders. He's getting old (for a RB), he's taken a ton of hits throughout his career, and he's going split carries with Darren McFadden. But then again, maybe he'll become a touchdown vulture for all those points this prolific Raiders offense is going to score this year...

Torrey Smith - WR, Ravens: Smith is still a bit of a one trick pony - he likes to run deep. Though he averaged 17.4 yards per catch last year, he also only scored 4 touchdowns. I don't trust Joe Flacco and Gary Kubiak incorporates his running backs (Pierce could be a steal this year) and TEs more.

Mike Wallace - WR, Dolphins: He was never worth the massive contract Miami gave him a couple of off-seasons ago and he's more of a one trick pony than Torrey Smith. He and Ryan Tannehill have never been on the same page and there's no reason to think it's suddenly going to click. His stats were more in line with a #2 receiver last year and that trend should continue. Plus he gets moody when things don't go well and no one wants to deal with that.

So there you have it, ten guys that people think will help your fantasy team this year but won't. If you disagree with the list and/or think someone else should be added, leave a comment below. You can also send a tastefully written e-mail about how stupid I am to spunkmeyeronsports@gmail.com.