In my last post I wrote about some decent options for fantasy football. This time around I'll be listing off some guys that I would not want, or at least hesitate to, draft. Some of the guys I mention below are players that I expect will have a significant decline in their fantasy value while other guys I expect to fall just a hair shy of expectations. I'm not going to list obvious guys like Chris "CJNoK" Johnson or Shaun Hill - nobody wants them.
Lower Your Expectations (Guys I would draft but lower than in previous years/lower than when the experts say to draft them):
Calvin Johnson - WR, Lions: Let's start off with the biggest name that will appear on this list. While he is the greatest wide receiver on the planet and will go down as one of the all time greats at his position, there is reason to believe that he will fall just short of the monster numbers that we're use to seeing from him. Detroit added a 2nd WR (Golden Tate), and they've been really working on screen plays to Reggie Bush and the rest of the running backs. While he'll finish the season as one of the top fantasy receivers (especially with Josh Gordon done for the year), don't expect 100+ yards and a touchdown or 2 every week.
Kyle Rudolph - TE, Vikings: Everyone is predicting that he's going to have a huge year. Why? Norv Turner, that's why. Just look what he did with Antonio Gates! While TE's have thrived in Turner's offensive schemes, there's a lot else going on with this offense. The Vikings have 3 pretty decent WR's (Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Jerome Simpson) and Adrian Peterson is going to be more involved in the passing game. Norv, in my opinion, actually helps out his running backs more. Just look what he did with Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, and Ladainian Tomlinson. Plus his QB is Matt Cassell. I'll feel better about him once Teddy Bridgewater becomes the starter.
Cam Newton - QB, Panthers: Who is he going to throw to? A rookie, an aging TE, and a bunch of nobodies. His running ability adds to his value but he gets hurt a lot. He needed surgery on his ankles this offseason and now he has a bruised/broken rib. He'll be starting week 1, but how long can he last? He'd be a good mid-round selection if you put off drafting your starting QB for some reason, or a solid back-up for bye weeks and match-up purposes. However, I don't want him leading my fantasy football team.
Andy Dalton - QB, Bengals: He's put up pretty decent numbers throwing to AJ Green the past couple of years, but I don't really trust him this year. Yeah the Bengals just gave him a huge vote of confidence signing him to a big deal. But let's look at another AFC North QB who recently cashed in and then was horrible - Joe Flacco. Dalton probably won't be as wildly inconsistent as Flacco was last year, but I'm not drafting a mid-tier QB who recently signed an elite QB deal to lead my team. Though he's another good back-up option.
Arian Foster - RB, Texans: He's coming off a lost season, is in a new offensive scheme that's not as RB friendly, and his QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He could surprise, but in my eyes he's not a first round fantasy pick any more. Maybe not even a second rounder.
Fools Gold (Avoid these guys, they will disappoint!):
Tom Brady - QB & Rob Gronkowski - TE, Patriots: These two are tied together because without Gronk, Brady has no one, NO ONE, to throw to. Gronk is one step away from another season ending injury. Counting on him to stay healthy is like counting on getting struck by lighting, winning the lottery, and surviving the Apocalypse all in one night. Brady, as I mentioned, has no one else to throw to and he just lost his best offensive lineman for future players. Brady's future is now and Belichick continues to waste it. Sorry, Bill and fantasy owners, but 2007 was a long time ago.
Eli Manning - QB, Giants: I've never liked Manning. Out of the 3 top QBs in the 2004 draft, he should have been the last one picked. He was lucky in both Super Bowl runs (aided by great defense - DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!) and is struggling to learn a new offense. All he's ever had is his last name, and he's certainly never come close to being Peyton Lite. Hell, he's never come close to being Cooper Lite.
Maurice Jones Drew - RB, Raiders: One of the best backs in the league finally got out of Jacksonville and then promptly landed with the Raiders. He's getting old (for a RB), he's taken a ton of hits throughout his career, and he's going split carries with Darren McFadden. But then again, maybe he'll become a touchdown vulture for all those points this prolific Raiders offense is going to score this year...
Torrey Smith - WR, Ravens: Smith is still a bit of a one trick pony - he likes to run deep. Though he averaged 17.4 yards per catch last year, he also only scored 4 touchdowns. I don't trust Joe Flacco and Gary Kubiak incorporates his running backs (Pierce could be a steal this year) and TEs more.
Mike Wallace - WR, Dolphins: He was never worth the massive contract Miami gave him a couple of off-seasons ago and he's more of a one trick pony than Torrey Smith. He and Ryan Tannehill have never been on the same page and there's no reason to think it's suddenly going to click. His stats were more in line with a #2 receiver last year and that trend should continue. Plus he gets moody when things don't go well and no one wants to deal with that.
So there you have it, ten guys that people think will help your fantasy team this year but won't. If you disagree with the list and/or think someone else should be added, leave a comment below. You can also send a tastefully written e-mail about how stupid I am to spunkmeyeronsports@gmail.com.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Decent Fantasy Football Options
A couple of years ago Bill Simmons and Grantland held the Fantasy Island competition. One's submission had to list players who wouldn't be highly sought after in fantasy football drafts and poetic reasons why you would want them on their team. Well, Grantland proceeded to select, out of all the submissions including one from your's truly, the worst ten people they possibly could have picked. These people then drafted fantasy football teams and then had to write blog posts each week about their teams, players, etc. The winner of this competition would receive a one-year contract to write about fantasy football for Grantland. This competition was so successful that it ended before the bye weeks began that season. In honor at this failed attempt, I'm going to resurrect, in my own way, the concept of the submission to a failed concept. Below is a list of players that I would want on my fantasy team this year if the value matches up to the draft round or dollar amount for auction leagues.
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees (Saints): I was going to say any NFC South quarterback, but Josh McCown doesn't strike confidence in anyone but Lovie Smith and Cam Newton has absolutely no one to throw to. Matt Ryan would be another decent choice, but Roddy White tends to get hurt and Julio Jones has been talking too much. So out of the four NFC South quarterbacks I'd take Brees. New Orleans' offense is spectacular and he has some good young wideouts to throw to, plus Jimmy Graham. Plus New Orleans has the best defense (more exact - best secondary) in the division which is a big reason I'd pick Brees over Ryan. Brees knows his window is closing and he wants another ring. This could be his best year yet.
Phillip Rivers (Chargers): This could very well be the first time ever that someone has recommended Phillip Rivers as a viable, dependable starter for fantasy football. If not, it hasn't happened very often. Rivers typically drives fantasy owners crazy with his erratic play. With Mike McCoy (and not Norv Turner) running the show and with the weapons that he has I fully expect Rivers to build on his success from last year. If I can't get Brees, I'd take Rivers. I can't believe I just said that.
Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings): Hear me out on this one. Yes, he's behind Matt Cassell at the moment. But do you really think Mike Zimmer thinks he can win with Matt Cassell? Scott Pioli thought that once and it cost him his job. A lot of people think that whoever wins the job in Minnesota will simply hand off to Peterson. Not going to happen. Peterson is getting older and needs to be used more wisely. The Vikings also have some pretty good receivers and an above average tight end. Bridgewater might not start right away, but he'll start sooner or later this season. Keep an eye on him. He could surprise.
Running Backs:
Matt Forte (Bears): I wrote in a previous post how LeSean McCoy is the best all around back in football. But I never draft high enough to get him. So I'd happily take Forte. He runs, he catches, and Marc Trestman's offense is designed to score points.
Giovani Bernard (Bengals): He's clearly atop the depth chart in Cincinnati. A.J. Green gets all the fantasy football attention, but the Bengals will bring a more balanced offensive attack this year. I don't normally trust second year running back - but that's mostly if they have a lot of success as a rookie. Bernard had an ok year last year, so he should be just fine in 2014.
Toby Gerhart (Jaguars): He put up pretty good numbers in college and he's sat behind Adrian Peterson his entire career. He made some flashes as a backup and now gets a chance to start. Sounds a little bit like some guy who played behind LaDainian Tomlinson and then had a few very successful seasons for the Falcons. Not saying Gerhart will be the next Michael Turner, but he has a shot.
Wide Receivers:
Golden Tate (Lions): Megatron gets all of the attention, but there's a reason the Lions signed Tate. They haven't had a reliable #2 receiver ever. Stafford is going to have to find other players to throw to when Johnson gets double or triple covered. Even with Reggie Bush catching passes out of the backfield, Tate should see his fair share of throws. He probably won't reach 1,000 yards receiving, but he could approach double digit touchdowns. He's worth a mid to late round pick in fantasy drafts.
Hakeem Nicks (Colts): He's greatly upgraded at quarterback (I've never believed in Eli Manning) and he just needs to stay healthy. If he can, he'll become the Colts' #1 receiver. If he does that he'll greatly reward his fantasy owners. He's a high risk/high reward kind of guy.
Jordan Matthews (Eagles): Yeah, he's a rookie but he plays for Chip Kelly. He'll get plenty of opportunities even as a #3 receiver. I also don't have faith that Jeremy Maclin can stay healthy for a full season. Mathews is another potential double digit touchdown guy...that is if LeSean McCoy doesn't steal everyones' scoring opportunities.
Tight Ends:
Jordan Reed (Washington): DeSean Jackson will receive a lot of attention and RGIII won't always be able to wait until he gets open downfield. Reed will be a great second option down the middle of the field. Pierre Garcon and Andre Roberts will get some catches, but Reed could, and should, be second on the team with catches. I also don't think RGIII will run as much this year as he tries to prove he's a pocket passer.
Dennis Pitta (Ravens): I don't really trust Joe Flacco but you never know which Joe will show. If it's good Joe, then he can light up that stat sheet. If it's bad Joe, he can still find his receivers some of the time. Pitta also had a chance to shine this year since Gary Kubiak loves incorporating tight ends into the passing game. I wouldn't worry too much about Owen Daniels taking too many catches away from Pitta at this stage of his career.
Tyler Eifert (Bengals): Yeah, Jermaine Gresham is the starter but Eifert still saw a decent amount of playing time as a rookie. Gresham also always disappoints his fantasy owners (trust me, first hand experience here).Eifert has the skills to supplant Gresham as the year goes on and Andy Dalton will need a reliable target when Green is covered too tightly. Eifert is worth a late round selection - just don't rely too much on him at the beginning of the season.
Defense: Pick the highest rated one when you think it's appropriate. Preferably late. Let other people waste early draft picks on defense.
Kicker: Pick one last or you will be made fun of relentlessly for the entire season. It doesn't matter which one you pick, you will change kickers - maybe more than once.
Do not take this as you need most or all of these players. These are just players that I happen to like for this upcoming season and I think could help your fantasy football team. There are certainly better options out there than the players on this list. These are (mostly) supplemental guys - not guys you want to rely on week in and week out. Also, if anyone from Grantland happens to ever read this: You didn't pick me for your failed Fantasy Island competition, but I still get to write about fantasy football! I just don't get paid and I probably have a really small audience. So take that!
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees (Saints): I was going to say any NFC South quarterback, but Josh McCown doesn't strike confidence in anyone but Lovie Smith and Cam Newton has absolutely no one to throw to. Matt Ryan would be another decent choice, but Roddy White tends to get hurt and Julio Jones has been talking too much. So out of the four NFC South quarterbacks I'd take Brees. New Orleans' offense is spectacular and he has some good young wideouts to throw to, plus Jimmy Graham. Plus New Orleans has the best defense (more exact - best secondary) in the division which is a big reason I'd pick Brees over Ryan. Brees knows his window is closing and he wants another ring. This could be his best year yet.
Phillip Rivers (Chargers): This could very well be the first time ever that someone has recommended Phillip Rivers as a viable, dependable starter for fantasy football. If not, it hasn't happened very often. Rivers typically drives fantasy owners crazy with his erratic play. With Mike McCoy (and not Norv Turner) running the show and with the weapons that he has I fully expect Rivers to build on his success from last year. If I can't get Brees, I'd take Rivers. I can't believe I just said that.
Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings): Hear me out on this one. Yes, he's behind Matt Cassell at the moment. But do you really think Mike Zimmer thinks he can win with Matt Cassell? Scott Pioli thought that once and it cost him his job. A lot of people think that whoever wins the job in Minnesota will simply hand off to Peterson. Not going to happen. Peterson is getting older and needs to be used more wisely. The Vikings also have some pretty good receivers and an above average tight end. Bridgewater might not start right away, but he'll start sooner or later this season. Keep an eye on him. He could surprise.
Running Backs:
Matt Forte (Bears): I wrote in a previous post how LeSean McCoy is the best all around back in football. But I never draft high enough to get him. So I'd happily take Forte. He runs, he catches, and Marc Trestman's offense is designed to score points.
Giovani Bernard (Bengals): He's clearly atop the depth chart in Cincinnati. A.J. Green gets all the fantasy football attention, but the Bengals will bring a more balanced offensive attack this year. I don't normally trust second year running back - but that's mostly if they have a lot of success as a rookie. Bernard had an ok year last year, so he should be just fine in 2014.
Toby Gerhart (Jaguars): He put up pretty good numbers in college and he's sat behind Adrian Peterson his entire career. He made some flashes as a backup and now gets a chance to start. Sounds a little bit like some guy who played behind LaDainian Tomlinson and then had a few very successful seasons for the Falcons. Not saying Gerhart will be the next Michael Turner, but he has a shot.
Wide Receivers:
Golden Tate (Lions): Megatron gets all of the attention, but there's a reason the Lions signed Tate. They haven't had a reliable #2 receiver ever. Stafford is going to have to find other players to throw to when Johnson gets double or triple covered. Even with Reggie Bush catching passes out of the backfield, Tate should see his fair share of throws. He probably won't reach 1,000 yards receiving, but he could approach double digit touchdowns. He's worth a mid to late round pick in fantasy drafts.
Hakeem Nicks (Colts): He's greatly upgraded at quarterback (I've never believed in Eli Manning) and he just needs to stay healthy. If he can, he'll become the Colts' #1 receiver. If he does that he'll greatly reward his fantasy owners. He's a high risk/high reward kind of guy.
Jordan Matthews (Eagles): Yeah, he's a rookie but he plays for Chip Kelly. He'll get plenty of opportunities even as a #3 receiver. I also don't have faith that Jeremy Maclin can stay healthy for a full season. Mathews is another potential double digit touchdown guy...that is if LeSean McCoy doesn't steal everyones' scoring opportunities.
Tight Ends:
Jordan Reed (Washington): DeSean Jackson will receive a lot of attention and RGIII won't always be able to wait until he gets open downfield. Reed will be a great second option down the middle of the field. Pierre Garcon and Andre Roberts will get some catches, but Reed could, and should, be second on the team with catches. I also don't think RGIII will run as much this year as he tries to prove he's a pocket passer.
Dennis Pitta (Ravens): I don't really trust Joe Flacco but you never know which Joe will show. If it's good Joe, then he can light up that stat sheet. If it's bad Joe, he can still find his receivers some of the time. Pitta also had a chance to shine this year since Gary Kubiak loves incorporating tight ends into the passing game. I wouldn't worry too much about Owen Daniels taking too many catches away from Pitta at this stage of his career.
Tyler Eifert (Bengals): Yeah, Jermaine Gresham is the starter but Eifert still saw a decent amount of playing time as a rookie. Gresham also always disappoints his fantasy owners (trust me, first hand experience here).Eifert has the skills to supplant Gresham as the year goes on and Andy Dalton will need a reliable target when Green is covered too tightly. Eifert is worth a late round selection - just don't rely too much on him at the beginning of the season.
Defense: Pick the highest rated one when you think it's appropriate. Preferably late. Let other people waste early draft picks on defense.
Kicker: Pick one last or you will be made fun of relentlessly for the entire season. It doesn't matter which one you pick, you will change kickers - maybe more than once.
Do not take this as you need most or all of these players. These are just players that I happen to like for this upcoming season and I think could help your fantasy football team. There are certainly better options out there than the players on this list. These are (mostly) supplemental guys - not guys you want to rely on week in and week out. Also, if anyone from Grantland happens to ever read this: You didn't pick me for your failed Fantasy Island competition, but I still get to write about fantasy football! I just don't get paid and I probably have a really small audience. So take that!
Tuesday, August 12, 2014
The NFLPA Needs to Step Up
The NFL and the NFLPA need to step up and fix the broken mess of a system of NFL suspensions. Seeing that Orlando Scandrick was suspended for four games for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) is another black mark on the Ray Rice suspension. Especially when reports suggest that he tested positive for recreational drugs during the off-season. Not sure why his suspension was listed as PEDs since recreational drugs do not enhance performance. You also may have noticed that there have been quite a few notable suspensions so far this year. According to Matt Verderame at SBNation, there have already been 16 notable suspensions this year, with one more high profile case being decided - Josh Gordon. You can see his article here. When you look at the chart that Verderame created, you'll notice that there is a column that lists the reason for the suspension. Most of the suspensions are for PEDs and Substance Abuse (usually recreational drug use). Two players were suspended for Conduct Detrimental to the League. One was Nigel Bradham who is expected to fill in for the injured Kiko Alonso for the Bills. The other was Ray Rice for - well, we all know what Ray Rice did. These two suspensions are also the shortest on the list. Many of us are left wondering how a player could be suspended longer for recreational drug use than for knocking their significant other unconscious? Well, one is collectively bargained (PEDs & Substance abuse) and all the other stuff isn't. Let's take a look at a few other notable cases.
Plaxico Burress was suspended for four games by the Giants (not the NFL) in 2008 after his gun went off in a NYC nightclub, resulting in him shooting himself in the thigh. The length of the suspension doesn't bother me since it was for the remainder of that season and then Burress went to jail for two years. The problem I have is that Burress was reinstated right after he got out of jail and did not face any further suspension. I know he served his time, but couldn't the NFL have stepped up and suspended him at least another two games? You know, to help advocate for gun safety?
Michael Vick was arrested in the 2007 offseason and served a little less than two years in jail for running a dog fighting ring. After being reinstated in 2009, he was suspended for three games by the NFL. Seems like an appropriate amount of games for someone who committed a felony, right? Also, why was Vick suspended after serving his jail sentence but Burress wasn't? Was it just the timing of the arrests?
Ben Rothlisberger has twice been accused of sexual assault, but did not face a suspension until the second charge in 2010. Despite charges being dropped, Goodell suspended Big Ben for six games, though that amount was later reduced to four. What was the basis for this suspension if law enforcement officials decided there wasn't enough evidence to pursue charges? If the suspension was for conduct detrimental to the league, why did Goodell wait until after the charges were dropped to issue it?
Four players who committed (or allegedly committed) serious crimes that ultimately served NFL suspensions equal to or less than those that violated the leagues substance abuse policies. I'm not saying that drug use is not a problem in our society. I understand that it is and drug use should be taken seriously. But shouldn't gun safety also be taken seriously? What about animal cruelty? What about sexual assault? What about domestic violence? Who is Roger Goodell to decide which crimes are less important than others?
But what can be done to help fix this sad state of suspension affairs in the NFL. As I started this post - DeMaurice Smith and the NFLPA need to step up. For the meantime, Smith and union reps should announce that they want to work with Goodell in the future in handling non-PED/Substance Abuse suspension cases. You know, the stuff that isn't collectively bargained. Having more than one voice should at least help make future suspensions more consistent than they currently are and the players will feel that they will be more accurately judged - which should increase the likely hood of accepting the suspensions. When the time comes, however, the NFLPA needs to step up to the negotiating table with the owners and demand reforms to suspendible offenses. They need to demand that a panel of league and union appointed arbitrators will be in charge of hearings and issuing suspensions. Five of them would be a great starting point - 2 from the league, 2 from the union, and 1 jointly appointed. Goodell has shown that he cannot handle making suspension decisions on his own. I also strongly believe that players should be suspended from all team contact and activities if they are charged or arrested until the matter has been solved in court. After that, the panel of arbitrators can issue further punishment if necessary. This should include all PED/Substance Abuse cases. Goodell should handle none of it, but should be allowed to speak to the panel regarding owner concerns.
I don't know what the NFLPA would have to give up or give in to in order for the changes to be accepted by the owners, but anything (except for a longer regular season) should be on the table. After all, since when did cheating at a game become worse than breaking the law?
Plaxico Burress was suspended for four games by the Giants (not the NFL) in 2008 after his gun went off in a NYC nightclub, resulting in him shooting himself in the thigh. The length of the suspension doesn't bother me since it was for the remainder of that season and then Burress went to jail for two years. The problem I have is that Burress was reinstated right after he got out of jail and did not face any further suspension. I know he served his time, but couldn't the NFL have stepped up and suspended him at least another two games? You know, to help advocate for gun safety?
Michael Vick was arrested in the 2007 offseason and served a little less than two years in jail for running a dog fighting ring. After being reinstated in 2009, he was suspended for three games by the NFL. Seems like an appropriate amount of games for someone who committed a felony, right? Also, why was Vick suspended after serving his jail sentence but Burress wasn't? Was it just the timing of the arrests?
Ben Rothlisberger has twice been accused of sexual assault, but did not face a suspension until the second charge in 2010. Despite charges being dropped, Goodell suspended Big Ben for six games, though that amount was later reduced to four. What was the basis for this suspension if law enforcement officials decided there wasn't enough evidence to pursue charges? If the suspension was for conduct detrimental to the league, why did Goodell wait until after the charges were dropped to issue it?
Four players who committed (or allegedly committed) serious crimes that ultimately served NFL suspensions equal to or less than those that violated the leagues substance abuse policies. I'm not saying that drug use is not a problem in our society. I understand that it is and drug use should be taken seriously. But shouldn't gun safety also be taken seriously? What about animal cruelty? What about sexual assault? What about domestic violence? Who is Roger Goodell to decide which crimes are less important than others?
But what can be done to help fix this sad state of suspension affairs in the NFL. As I started this post - DeMaurice Smith and the NFLPA need to step up. For the meantime, Smith and union reps should announce that they want to work with Goodell in the future in handling non-PED/Substance Abuse suspension cases. You know, the stuff that isn't collectively bargained. Having more than one voice should at least help make future suspensions more consistent than they currently are and the players will feel that they will be more accurately judged - which should increase the likely hood of accepting the suspensions. When the time comes, however, the NFLPA needs to step up to the negotiating table with the owners and demand reforms to suspendible offenses. They need to demand that a panel of league and union appointed arbitrators will be in charge of hearings and issuing suspensions. Five of them would be a great starting point - 2 from the league, 2 from the union, and 1 jointly appointed. Goodell has shown that he cannot handle making suspension decisions on his own. I also strongly believe that players should be suspended from all team contact and activities if they are charged or arrested until the matter has been solved in court. After that, the panel of arbitrators can issue further punishment if necessary. This should include all PED/Substance Abuse cases. Goodell should handle none of it, but should be allowed to speak to the panel regarding owner concerns.
I don't know what the NFLPA would have to give up or give in to in order for the changes to be accepted by the owners, but anything (except for a longer regular season) should be on the table. After all, since when did cheating at a game become worse than breaking the law?
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